An Ocean of Words: Back in our July 2020 Investor Letter, we discussed the data analysis efforts we have been making during the COVID-19 fallout with an eye towards developing a framework to better understand how narratives evolve to affect people, markets, and economies. Since that time, we have taken that framework and begun developing a proprietary software stack to further refine our data collection/analysis process.

A Closer Look at Q2 2020’s Historic GDP Decline: An initial look at how the U.S. economy fared under the more stringent period of national lockdowns is now available and it should come as little surprise the numbers are nothing short of terrible. On an annualized basis U.S. GDP declined 32.9%.

From Great Reopening to Another Not So Great Reclosing: As of the beginning of July - a time when much of the country was expecting to be well on the road back to normal - 13 states had begun to alter their statewide reopening plans due to rapidly rising case numbers observed within the final few weeks of June.

The Economy is Reopening, But Are the Jobs Coming Back: In last month’s note we reported on how the U.S. lost about 20.5 million jobs in the month of April. One month later and it appears the train is back on the rails. May’s jobs number was expected to show an 8 million decline; however, the actual number came in at an about 2.5 million increase.

No More Corporate Guidance: April began the first quarter earnings report recaps for many companies, and very quickly a familiar tone began to emerge. Most companies declined to provide forward-looking guidance on revenue and profits for the remainder of the year such as Apple (AAPL) which still managed to grow during the 3-month period, January to March 2020.

The Month the Earth Stood Still: Coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, or simply COVID - it is a phenomenon known by many names and one that will undoubtedly have social, political, and economic ramifications for decades. For reference, as of this writing in the first week of April, the reported figures of the virus’s impact across the globe are as follows: Total Confirmed: 1,712,674, Total Deaths: 103,796, and Total Recovered 388,910. Cases have been reported on 6 of the 7 continents and in 185 of 195 countries.

A Look at the Chinese Economy in Light of Coronavirus: The main headline for markets so far this year has been the developments surrounding the spread of the coronavirus, also referred to as COVID-19 (the shorthand for “Corona Virus Disease 2019”). So far, data from February depicting the virus’ effects on economies, particularly China’s, has been trickling in and the picture is about as expected.

Updates on the Fed and Repo Market Activities: January was a relatively busy month for the Fed. In the final week of the month, the Fed’s FOMC voted to leave its target range for interest rates unchanged following the series of cuts it made last year. During his post meeting press conference, Chairman Powell delivered remarks that were seemingly well received by the markets regarding the Fed’s outlook on policy for the coming months.